Based on the description on Poll Bludger I am not satisfied that it was intended as an overall 2PP rather than an estimate of preference flow from minor party voters. Okay let’s look at Aust Super Choice Income aka Fixed Stream Account, quote,”Strong long-term returns – 10.90% pa average annual 10 year rate of return for the Balanced option”+ zoomstersays: Brisbane Council is dominated by the LNP but any sizeable swing in any direction will be seen as a portent for the state election. +”Returns as at 30 June 2019. First up, note the new-ish posts below on a YouGov poll for South Australia and Adrian Beaumont’s latest on the US race. View all posts by William Bowe, Reviews of the ABC’s “Murdoch dynasty” please. Groom was first won in 1984 by the National Party’s Tom McVeigh. Apparently my quoting and linking to Aust Super’s website is a faux investigation. I didn’t realise until recently that the black death was responsible for the rise of sheep and thus the industrial revolution. Ms Groom, 57, says she will also be voting no in the referendum to determine extended shopping hours. Absurd and unsustainable, as is the fact that people like me aren’t required to pay tax on the income portion of their superannuation pension (although that will be low or non-existent in this plague year). Only 33% of Australians have a favourable view of the United States, down from 50% last year, a change similar to that for all other nations surveyed. NO 15%+ Return. This poll was conducted November 25-28 from a sample of 1,511 people. The display featured above is a small sample of what will be available tonight on this site’s results facility. The LNP settles on a candidate for the Groom by-election, as what doesn’t kill Gladys Berejiklian and Daniel Andrews only makes them stronger. He was the 12th Deputy Premier of South Australia from 2011 to 2018 and 48th Attorney-General of South Australia from 2010 to 2018 for the South Australian Branch of the Australian Labor Party in the Weatherill cabinet. Craig Farquharson: What prompted me to run as a candidate in Groom is, because as a small business owner, I could not get my elected MP to talk to me or even to call me back. Morphett is a single-member electoral district for the South Australian House of Assembly.The electorate is located approximately 10 kilometres (6.2 mi) slightly south of west of the Adelaide city centre, bounded by the Holdfast Bay coastline to the west and Morphett Road to the east. Your email address will not be published. Learn more. Geography North-western parts of South Australia. Around 80% of the voters in Groom live in Toowoomba, 130 kilometres to the west of Brisbane. Lars Von Trier @ #658 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 8:39 pm. Past performance isn’t a reliable indicator of future returns”. 6:47 The AEC-projected 2PP swing has crept up to a more reasonable 4% swing to Labor, but Poll Bludger projects that to come down to 2.4%. Sunday, September 20, 2020 at 8:41 pm This poll was conducted November 25-28 from a sample of 1,511 people. ... Groom by-election - 28 November 2020 Western Australia - 13 March 2021 NSW councils - 4 September 2021. Groom: Primary vote. Groom Giles – SA 2014 ALP 11.9% Incumbent MP Lyn Breuer, since 1997. The Poll Bludger version, which has similar totals and much swishier presentation, includes state breakdowns but not seatpolls. * I treat Newspoll up to mid-2015 and Newspoll after that as different pollsters as the series were administered by entirely different companies. However, I believe that there must be more to it than that, otherwise why domicile the fund overseas in the Caymans? William Bowe，Groom by-election minus two days，《The Poll Bludger》，2020年11月26日。 Kevin Bonham，Groom: Australia's Most Boring By-Election?，2020年11月11日。 Melody Labinsky，Garth Hamilton, Chris， Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. Groom was created as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives at the 1984 election. This poll was conducted November 25-28 from a sample of 1,511 people. Sunday, September 20, 2020 at 8:35 pm I agree with that, so long as the Australian people no longer subsidise Private Education and Health beyond a flat rate payable to every school child and for every citizen’s health needs, with top ups only for Public Schools, The photos Donald Trump never wanted us to see. This gives a result of 53.13% to Labor (+1.9 swing from my 2017 estimate.) Created at federation and fairly constant in its boundaries ever since, Maranoa covers a vast expanse of south-western Queensland accounting for about 40% of the state’s surface area. "Groom: Australia's Most Boring By-Election? Poll Bludger: could Turnbull-haters revive the irrelevant Nats? Groom was created as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives at the 1984 election. Ben Raue. The seat thereafter went back and forth between the Liberal Party and the National/Country Party, first with Fadden's move to the new seat of McPherson in 1949. In two party preferred terms this all looks like nothing to see, because the lost percent from the Coalition should be nearly cancelled out by the lost percent from the Greens, with the difference offset by the gain to One Nation (who preference the Coalition somewhat). ___________________________ _______________________ With Labor having polled 18.7% of the primary vote in the seat at the 2019 election, it seems a fairly safe bet that they will be sitting this one out. I won’t be letting any aged care shark get their hands on it. Groom 2020 - votes LvT, And, of course, the settlement of Australia was largely driven by the need for more pasture …to raise sheep. Also, thanks Vote1Julia for reminding us how we used to exchange ideas on what to read on this blog. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in … Reddit gives you the best of the internet in one place. The city is located at the eastern end of an electorate that extends to Jondaryan and Pittsworth in the west, Goombungee in the north, and sparsely populared rural areas further afield. The next three-cornered contest came with Swartz's retirement in 1972, when Tom McVeigh gained the seat for the Country Party. Would any other Bludger who gets a 15%+ return on their Super Fund please speak up? The next Australian federal election will be held in or before 2022 to elect members of the 47th Parliament of Australia. September 29, 2020. His father, Tom McVeigh, held the seat for the National/Country Party from 1972 to 1988 (it was known until 1984 as Darling Downs), but it passed to the Liberal control at the by-election following his retirement. Two-candidate preferred. C@tmomma says: This follows yesterday’s announcement by Liberal-aligned LNP member John McVeigh, the member since 2016 and previously state member for Toowoomba South from 2012,. that … Entries feature details on candidates, demography, swing analysis and more. This was in recognition of its first two members, William Groom and Littleton Groom, who held the seat until 1936, the latter succeeding the former after he became the first federal parliamentarian to die in office in August 1901. Election results in Groom at the 2019 federal election Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and One Nation primary votes. This poll was conducted November 25-28 from a sample of 1,511 people. This poll was conducted November 25-28 from a sample of 1,511 people. Groom is the first federal by-election not contested by the Greens since Warringah, 1994, and breaks a streak of 30 successive by-elections that the party has contested. This week's poll came in with primaries of Coalition 42 (-1) Labor 36 (-) Greens 10 (-1) One Nation 3 (+1) Others 9 (+1). Newspoll figures are from The Poll Bludger. The Poll Bludger. Ben is joined by William Bowe, the Poll Bludger, to discuss the results of the Eden-Monaro by-election. McVeigh came to the seat in 2016, having previously been the state member for Toowoomba South since 2012. Hamilton was one of eight nominees for preselection, his strongest rivals being Rebecca Vonhoff, a Toowoomba councillor, Bryce Camm, president of Australian Lot Feeders, and David van Gend, a doctor and firebrand social conservative. The seat has always been held by Coalition MPs. A piece commenced with the following lines: "Kevin Rudd has refused to reveal whether under-pressure Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese can win Queensland despite the former Prime Minister joining him for day one of a whirlwind ‘jobs tour’ across the state. – Conversation between Col. Flashman and Lord Cardigan outside Horse Guards during the Royal Commission into the Charge of the Light Brigade (as parsed from memory my me): Flashman and the Great Game. Please direct me to any Fund in Australian Super that gives an RoR in anytime period of 15+% in the last 2.5 yrs. The top half of the display features progress vote totals and booth-matched swings, including a New York Times-style “election needle” recording a probability estimate of the final result. Required fields are marked *. . You can’t because such a high RoR doesn’t exist at Aust Super. Subscribe to Blog via Email. Steve777 says: You should talk to BB, he can get you a 15% p.a return apparently. Groom (LNP 20.5%) - CALLED (6:37 pm), Garth Hamilton (LNP) elected. Again direct me onto the Aust Super website to where you can obtain a 15%+ RoR on a Fixed Stream Account. William “ The Poll Bludger ” Bowe’s expert analysis walks Crikey readers though the 150 electorates in the House of Representatives. Hartley is a single-member electoral district for the South Australian House of Assembly. Not really c@t, its pretty clear BB has been caught out bullshitting again. This is One Nation’s worst result in a federal Newspoll since before the 2019 … If I live long enough, the capital will run out and I go on the pension. Good day to you”. Sunday, September 20, 2020 at 8:36 pm …I’d agree with PJK on tax: – basically flater lower rates of tax without deductions (to prevent the rich rorting loopholes) is the way to go. A by-election looms in an uncompetitive seat; a poll shows Labor maintaining a lead in Victoria in spite of everything; and regard for the United States and its President falls still further. Adrian Beaumont, University of Melbourne. * I treat Newspoll up to mid-2015 and Newspoll after that as different pollsters as the series were administered by entirely different companies. Horrible right-winger that he was, George MacDonald Fraser had a knack for decent historical novels too. An agreement between the coalition parties reserved Darling Downs for the Liberals, and it was next held for the party by Reginald Swartz. Did you see me at the Battwery. I’ve noticed in your response you changed your Super from a “Balanced Fund” to a ” Fixed Stream Account”. The seat has effectively existed since federation, although its name was changed from Darling Downs in 1984. Swing 3.29%, compared to historic average 6% for government seat by-election vacancies. Repository of links to past election guides and poll trends for previous terms. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont. As a result of using state breakdowns, its casualty list is quite different. Saturday’s good reading and listening for the weekend - Pearls and IrritationsPearls and Irritations. (Photo: Matthew Liddy/ABC Online.) For parties not included in Antony's tallies, I use the sampled distributions published by Poll Bludger. William “ The Poll Bludger ” Bowe’s expert analysis walks Crikey readers though the 150 electorates in the House of Representatives. This poll was conducted November 25-28 from a sample of 1,511 people. This poll was conducted November 25-28 from a sample of 1,511 people. Read William’s blog, The Poll Bludger. All of this for zero effort on my part and very little worry (Note: not zero worry).

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